If we want to second-guess trends in financial volatility, what is a better measure to use - implied volatility from the options market, or time-series of volatility based on historical daily returns. Does this differ across classes e.g. equity, forex, commodities.
In an efficient market, the option price will incorporate all available information. But are option prices really efficient?
Also, can we find mathematical models that model the impact of volatility shocks on different assets accurately?
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